Track record
Our predictions, sealed and dated. Judged in public.
Every prediction is written down, dated, and sealed with a hash the moment it is made — then chained to the one before it, so the record cannot be edited after the fact. The first verdicts resolve in December 2026. Until then, this proves the mechanism, not the accuracy.
Why this matters — to you
Anyone can say they saw it coming. We write the call down, dated and sealed, before the outcome is known — so our record can't be edited in hindsight. Today, that's why you can trust every other number on this site: they come from the one source willing to be scored in public. From December 2026, it becomes a record you can act on.
For the skeptic: proof we don't fudge — the reason to trust the numbers now.
For the analyst: a predictor with receipts — the reason to act on them later.
First verdicts resolve
December 15, 2026
— days away
249
predictions sealed · live
0
graded so far — the clock is running, in public
The honest part
A record you can't edit is only worth anything if it includes the misses. When these resolve, we publish the hits AND the misses — the same standard we hold everyone else to. We already have one withdrawal resolved; we won't quote a hit-rate until twenty do.
Why the record holds
01
Dated
Each prediction carries the moment it was made — before the outcome was known.
02
Hash-chained
Each seal links to the one before it. Alter any past prediction and the chain breaks — tamper-evident by design.
03
Recomputable
Every seal points to the sources and the calculation behind it. Anyone can recompute the number.
Recompute it yourself — right now
Don't take this page's word for it. The panel below reads the public ledger endpoint live, in your browser — the same call any auditor can make without asking us.
anchored prefix intact
—
every entry the external witness saw is byte-identical today
external witness
—
OpenTimestamps attestation — a party we don't control vouches for WHEN
sealed since last anchor
—
new entries awaiting the next weekly anchor — expected lag, not a gap
Source, live: /api/v1/ledger/root· full method: /methodology
The cadence
An index has a clock the market can set its watch by. Ours runs on three beats — each one a record you can check, not a promise.
Daily
The number is re-read
THE LOADSTAR NUMBER and the regional index recompute every day from official U.S. ISO queue data — with the reading date stamped on every surface.
Weekly
The ledger is anchored
The root of the sealed ledger is submitted to an external witness (OpenTimestamps → Bitcoin) — a party we don't control vouches for when each prediction existed.
Dec 15, 2026
The first verdicts land
The earliest sealed predictions reach their 180-day horizon and resolve in public — hits and misses alike. — days away.
We seal three questions about the future
60
Which regions are real
The 0–100 reality score for each region — will it hold up?
99
Which projects die
Queue projects predicted to withdraw — phantoms dying.
90
Which projects build
Queue projects predicted to advance to construction.
A sample of what is sealed
| Region | Score | Sealed | Resolves | Seal (hash) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Indiana | 93 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-15 | 93b5c57fb74a… |
| Seattle Metro | 87 | 2026-06-25 | 2026-12-22 | 1dac6468b330… |
| Seattle Metro | 79 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-15 | 2b89a3397581… |
| Silicon Valley | 76 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-15 | 74090dab9558… |
| Silicon Valley | 65 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-12-29 | 98e32d1af228… |
| Phoenix Metro | 45 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-15 | 3347998defae… |
| Chicago Metro | 45 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-15 | 220599290bae… |
| Reno / Sparks | 45 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-15 | a9337b6ecaa4… |
| Portland / Hillsboro | 42 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-12-29 | 0b8e7bcbbd1d… |
A dated snapshot — the full, verifiable ledger is public and append-only.
Open the live ledger →